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CHANCE & UNCERTAINITY

We all have spent years and years studying mathematics, chemistry and biology; nonetheless, no one can ever define or control uncertainties.We still haven’t been able to find that which words are appropriate when describing the unavoidable unpredictability of real life – what we might casually call ‘chance’?

In the era of COVID19, each one of us has experienced uncertainty at a different level, in a different way, at a different magnitude.

First and foremost, as per my understanding, its extremely vital that we all analyze and evaluate the probability of a simple eventsoccurring. It will help us torecognize the equation between the frequency of it happening and the probability of the event happening. Uncertainty and risk in today’s time are addressed as monsters to the happiness of the calm mind and the fragile heart. So, we must at all costs, normalize talking about it. Let’s not burden our minds and jeopardize our ability to rationally think about the unseen phenomena of life.

Now let’s talk about the difference between risk and uncertainty. In plan simple words – risk is when the outcome can be quantifies, and uncertainty is when it cannot be quantified. So, the next step is to understand the terminology that should be used in order to convey uncertainty or risk or chance. The words that should be used in such circumstances are as – likely, very likely, virtually certain, about as likely, about as likely as not, unlikely, very unlikely, exceptionally unlikely. Once we start using these words to convey the % of risk or uncertainty around the occurrence of an event, it automatically alerts the opposite person. When it alerts them, they also get a fair chance to understand, evaluate and maybe even accept the worst outcome (if there may be one).

Now what signs does uncertainty show in human behaviour?

Uncertainty brings fear, panic and loss amongst close ones. It is an inevitable occurrence;thus, communication needs to have the following characteristics in such situations:

  1. Be transparent.
  2. Be explicit in communicating the level of uncertainty
  3. Be open about how frighte4ned it makes you.
  4. Think of the worst possible and scenario and plan ahead.
  5. Maintain consistency in sharing updates related to the matter in concern.
  6. Do not shut yourself out and be a patient listener when someone shares their ideas.
  7. Do not let unidentified news from unverified sources affect your self confidence and create a sense of confusion amongst you and your close (professional/personal) circle.
  8. If you are uncertain about a human being, treat it with a rational mind and talk things to keep the line of communication crystal clear.
  9. If you are uncertain about a business, make sure you use data, statistics and technology to define the level of the uncertainty and its impact on everything.

Lastly, to conclude uncertainty, risk and chance are all different tangents of the same circle i.e., life. So, accept the good and bad with a pinch of salt and make sure you de4al with it, before it deals with you!

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